It was a bearish end to the week for Bitcoin (BTC). A bullish start to Sunday saw Bitcoin test resistance at $40,000 before hitting reverse. The reversal saw Bitcoin slide from a day high of $39,862 to a late intraday low of $37,040 before finding support.
Following a 0.27% decline on Saturday, Bitcoin fell by 3.66% to end the week down by 1.80% to $37,704.
It was also a bearish session for the rest of the crypto top 10.
AVAX tumbled by 8.08% to lead the way down, with LUNA sliding by 7.31%.
ADA (-3.49%), BNB (-3.64%), ETH (-5.85%), SOL (-5.13%) and XRP (-3.93%) also struggled.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Continues Upswing
Market angst stemming from news updates on Russia led to a slide in the index from 26/100 to 20/100 this morning. The tumble led the index back into the “Extreme Fear” zone.
For the Bitcoin bulls, the index will need to move back through to 50/100 to bring $50,000 levels back into play for Bitcoin. A fall to sub-20/100 would deliver sub-$30,000 levels.
News of Russia putting nuclear forces on “special alert” and coordinated response by the West weighed on market sentiment. In response, the EU announced that it “will finance the purchase and delivery of weapons and other equipment to a country that is under attack.” Other measures included closing its airspace to all Russian aircraft and banning the Russian state-owned tv network Russia today and news agency Sputnik.
Bitcoin Price Action
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.18% to $37,784.
Bitcoin will need to move through the $38,202 pivot to make a run on the First Major Resistance Level at $39,364. Bitcoin would need broader market support to break through to $39,000.
In the event of an extended rally, resistance at $40,000 and the Second Major Resistance Level at $41,024 would come into play. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $43,846.
Failure to move through the pivot would bring the First Major Support Level at $36,542 into play. Barring an extended sell-off throughout the day, Bitcoin should avoid sub-$35,000 levels. The Second Major Support Level at $35,380 should limit the downside.
Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (above), it is a bearish signal. Bitcoin continues to sit well below the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA has pulled further back from the 100-day and 200-day EMAs this morning. A further pullback would bring the Major Support Levels into play.
A move through the 50-day EMA at the $38,800 level would provide some support.
Key Drivers for the Week Ahead
News updates on the Russian invasion of Ukraine will remain the area of focus. Any further escalation by Russia or the West would further test support for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Away from the news, U.S President Joe Biden’s State of the Union Speech on Monday night and FED Chair Powell’s Testimony on Wednesday and Thursday will also influence.
On the regulatory front, we are also looking out for the White House Executive Order on cryptos and the EU’s rollout of Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA). MiCA is a proposed regulatory framework for digital assets currently in the hands of lawmakers.